Conspiracy Theories and Propaganda

The Canadian Press reports that Conservatives believe conspiracy theories, but only five of the CP's 13 supposed conspiracy theories actually mention a conspiracy.

The Canadian Press, via the Globe and Mail and many other sources, reports that conservatives are prone to believe in conspiracy theories, according to a recent poll.¹ The mainstream media detests conservatives so unthinkingly that one of the “conspiracy theories” they blame conservatives for believing is the idea that the media manipulates information. “Failure to esteem us is a conspiracy theory!” they insist.

Example number one of a conspiracy theory — literally the first sentence of the article — is the “the earth is flat.” We are told that 5% of Canadians believe this. Deplorable (if one can still use that term) as that may be, the idea that the earth is flat is not a conspiracy theory, for the obvious reason that it does not posit a conspiracy. Not all false or ridiculous ideas are conspiracy theories: there are other ways of being wrong.

The intention is obviously propagandistic. The CP has provided a talking point for any number of future op-eds claiming, “Conservatives believe conspiracies, even the flat earth theory!”, and here is the link, creating a specious air of empirical factuality that will be persuasive to those already inclined to believe it. This is clearly intentional.

I wrote some time ago about the defining characteristics of a conspiracy theory, here. To summarize, I defined a conspiracy theory as an explanation that relied on a secret plot, or conspiracy, among a number of people. I also argued that a level of complexity beyond some single bad act is required to constitute a theory.

Conspiracy theories are rightly mocked, not because Washington, Ottawa and Westminster are not full of conspiracies, but because conspiracies are as prone to accident and error as any other human endeavour, and so are likely to fail, or if they succeed, to have unintended consequences. They thus make unconvincing explanations. Even where there are conspiracies (in the article linked above, I mentioned Watergate), they are normally not secret for long.

One can find conspiratorial beliefs about pretty well anything, and such beliefs have the attractive consequence of reducing major problems to the actions of a few bad people. The welcome implication is that if the conspiracy can be exposed, the problem would be solved. Unfortunately, major social and political problems (like say, leftist capture of the media) are more complicated, and require systemic explanations.

I have listed here the ideas the Canadian Press thinks are conspiratorial, and have classified each as conspiratorial or not, and as true or false, when that can be done; on three a firm opinion is not necessary to the argument.

13 “Conspiracy Theories” identified by the Canadian Press

The real problem is evident, and goes to the definition of the term “conspiracy theory”: most of these so-called “conspiracy theories” lack a conspiracy. Some are true (the mainstream media obviously is manipulative), and some just as plainly false (flat earth), but only five of 13 actually posit a conspiracy or secret plot.

The five that really are conspiracy theories imagine complex and secret action by people in authority, and in most cases the conspiracy would have to be improbably large to keep the matter under wraps. Some are attractive because they give meaning to an affecting human tragedy (Princess Diana) or present hope for the solution of pressing personal problems (cancer), others actually do become cranky.

That leaves eight of 13 ideas or contentions that the MSM thinks are conspiracy theories, but that fail to presuppose a conspiracy. Much more could be said about the truth or plausibility of any of these eight. Passing them briefly in review, it is clear that much comes down to wording.

• Flat Earth: a false belief that mentions no conspiracy;

• Global Warming: it is a fact that the planet has warmed by one degree Celsius in the past half century. There may be conspiratorial explanations of the current elite panic about that, but the CP article names none.

• Mainstream Media Manipulative: obviously true;

• JFK assassination: the article says the belief that there was a coverup is a conspiracy theory, but a coverup of what? There are in fact still-classified documents concerning the assassination, so *something*, likely incompetence or neglect, is being hidden. This is not the same as believing that there was a conspiracy to kill JFK.

• COVID Lab Leak: the idea that COVID came from a lab supposes no conspiracy. The CP article inserts the phrase “biological weapon”, which is conspiratorial, but most accounts make no mention of that. An accidental lab leak is not conspiratorial, as a conspiracy is a kind of plan, the opposite of an accident.

• Vaccines: “safe and effective” was for a long time the slogan of the times, repeated endlessly by governments and media, and both terms have been brought into question. It is in fact true that such claims were at best exaggerated.

• 2020 Election: there are conspiratorial accounts of the election that go on about voting machines and Venezuelan hackers, but where 43% of ballots were mailed in, ballot harvesting widely practiced, and hundreds of millions spent, questions are legitimate. Serious election skeptics do not imagine the secret plots that would be needed to make a conspiracy theory.

• Global Elite: that there is a global elite is obvious and no kind of secret. Look at the jets on the runway at any climate conference. The global elite talks about “global governance” all the time, so the idea the global elite wants global government is a very poorly concealed conspiracy.

• Feminism: Many feminists want to see women in positions of power, so again, feminism is a social movement, and not a conspiracy.

The CP article is based on a poll, and much would come down to the phrasing and emphasis of the questions. What is clear is that those commissioning the poll wanted to find conspiracism, and to associate it with conservatism. The questions were framed so as to associate absurd or cranky beliefs (flat earth, aliens, moon landings) with other beliefs that are true but that the pollsters wish to paint as absurdity, and to exclude from polite company. So if you are skeptical of the media or the medical establishment or global warming hysteria, you are wing-bat crazy, or at any rate you hang with such people. This is insinuation, not argument.

79% of Canadians and 84% of Americans are reported as believing in at least one of the CP’s list of conspiracy theories, alarming numbers until one realizes that many of the CP’s supposed “conspiracy theories” are true or potentially true, depending on how they are stated. Verbal precision, not a strength of the Canadian Press, is key, and much of what is happening here is advertent imprecision: a word or two (“biological weapon”, “secret”) is inserted to give a reasonable belief an air of tin-foil hat absurdity.

It is clear that trust in institutions, including the mainstream media, is declining. Obviously the mainstream media would like to change this. One method would be large scale reform, leaving activism and social agendas behind, going back to reporting the news, and slowly rebuilding their credibility. This is unlikely to happen. It is easier to gin up a panic about conspiracy theories.

One of the characteristics of disinformation is to mix in elements of the truth with the falsehoods it is desired to circulate, at once tarring the truth and lending an air of plausibility to falsehood: here we have an example, mixing absurd beliefs (flat earth) with those the media wants to discredit (their own manipulativeness, election and vaccine skepticism). The mainstream media is itself a leading practitioner of disinformation, and quite good at it too.

The MSM, in the form of the Canadian Press (a good representative, given that its stories are used across the mainstream media), has contrived a poll designed to slander conservatives as conspiracists, crazy or stupid or possibly both, and also to support demands for the censorship or algorithmic suppression of non-regime media outlets, all in the name of fighting “disinformation.” Their ideology and their interests point in the same direction.

Logical clarity and verbal precision will be important weapons in fighting this standing threat to our civil liberties. Ask first what is being claimed, and whether it is false, or indeed conspiratorial at all. Because when they shout “conspiracy theory,” it may well be true.

1. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-conspiracy-theories-are-popular-in-canada-especially-among/